NYT Blog: North Carolina’s Marriage Amendment "Appears Likely to Pass"


No reason to lessen our efforts, but reason to be encouraged, via Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog at the New York Times:

"...The most recent poll was conducted by Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank whose poll results have generally shown little partisan bias in the past. That survey polled Democratic and Republican primary voters separately, but projected that the measure would win by 16 percentage points when it combined the results.

An April poll by Public Policy Polling, which conducts polling for Democratic clients but whose surveys also have a track record of nonpartisanship, had the measure prevailing by 14 points.

Both the Civitas and Public Policy Polling surveys directly read the text of the amendment to the voters they were polling. Conversely, some polls that described what the amendment would do but did not read the ballot language have sometimes showed it failing, often by clear margins."