Dear Friends of Marriage,
Victory in California! With your help, NOM played a central role in defeating pro-gay marriage GOP Senate candidate Tom Campbell yesterday.
Back in March, NOM was the first on the air with TV ads highlighting Tom Campbell's liberal record on gay marriage and taxes. In May, we came back with a wildly successful automated phone campaign to 600,000 GOP primary voters, letting them know where Tom Campbell stands on gay marriage.
Gay marriage advocates used to brag that no politician had ever lost a race because of his (or her) support for same-sex marriage. Certainly political races involve many factors, and it's often difficult to pinpoint one particular factor leading to a political defeat.
But today they can no longer make that claim with a straight face. Less than three years after NOM's founding, we have now seen race after race where a candidate's support for gay marriage was significant in leading to that candidate's defeat.
Just ask Dede Scozzafava in New York. Or Jon Corzine and Loretta Weinberg in New Jersey. And now Tom Campbell in California, just to name a few.
When former Congressman Tom Campbell jumped into the U.S. Senate race in California in mid-January, he became the immediate front-runner for the GOP nomination, leading many polls by double digits.
He appeared to be sailing toward a primary victory, set to face incumbent Barbara Boxer in the fall. . . . Until NOM uncovered an editorial he had written opposing Proposition 8: "Ending Marriage Discrimination in California: Why Republicans Should Vote NO on Prop 8."
Were GOP primary voters really going to support a pro-gay marriage Republican candidate for U.S. Senate?
We doubted it, and here's what we found:
- 80% of GOP voters supported Proposition 8.
- Just 2% of GOP voters knew that Campbell supports gay marriage; 14% mistakenly thought he opposed same-sex marriage.
- 55% of Campbell's supporters were less likely to vote for him after being told of his support for same-sex marriage.
That's when NOM launched our educational campaign to make sure California GOP voters knew about Tom Campbell's record supporting gay marriage.
NOM was the first to stand up to Tom Campbell's liberal record on gay marriage and taxes. And with your help, we changed the game in California.
In mid-March, we launched a $300,000 TV ad campaign (small by California standards!), "Two Peas, Same Liberal Pod," the first to highlight Campbell's support for same-sex marriage, higher income taxes and higher gas taxes -- all positions shared with liberal Democratic incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer. This early ad effort helped set the tone for the race, making same-sex marriage an issue Campbell was forced to address in his campaign.
Fast-forward to May 19th. After a slight dip in March, Tom Campbell had regained a sizeable and consistent lead over opponents Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore. The latest poll showed Campbell with a 15-point lead over Fiorina. On May 19th, NOM launched an automated phone campaign to 600,000 likely GOP primary voter households, informing them of Tom Campbell's support for same-sex marriage. We followed up the phone campaign with an internet ad campaign and website: www.StopTomCampbell.com.
Overnight, the next poll, taken May 21-23, showed Carly Fiorina with a startling 23-point lead over Campbell, 46% to 23%, as Campbell's support dropped by one-third.
Certainly there were many factors that played into that dramatic shift -- by that time, pro-life and pro-family advocates had joined together in the effort to stop Tom Campbell, Fiorina campaign ads were blanketing the airwaves, and Sarah Palin had endorsed the Carly Fiorina -- but only NOM's May 19-21 outreach to 600,000 GOP primary voters can explain the dramatic, overnight reversal in the polls.
Tom Campbell's campaign never recovered. Within days his donors had dried up, his campaign was in freefall, and his ads were being pulled from the airwaves for lack of funding.
Quite frankly, I was surprised myself at how closely the Campbell polling data tracked our efforts. The last poll showing a Campbell lead over Fiorina (37% to 22%) was taken May 17-19. Our phone calls went live from the 19th through May 21st, and by the next two polls taken May 21-23, Fiorina had not only erased Tom Campbell's lead, but was ahead by more than 20 percentage points.
Take a look at the RealClearPolitics trending in the race (with annotations showing NOM's TV and phone campaigns):
Daily, I grow more confident that, with God's help and enough resources, we can win this battle for marriage. We have the truth on our side -- truth that resonates with the American people. Time and time again, we have proven that Americans believe in marriage, not just in red states like Utah, Texas, and Alabama, but also in blue states like California, Maine, New York and New Jersey.
2010 is a critical year for marriage. And your help is critical. Gay Republicans are fighting for the soul of the Republican party. The Democratic party is deeply divided over the issue of same-sex marriage.
Please stand with us today. Together we are changing the future of marriage in our nation!
Faithfully,
Brian S. BrownPresident
National Organization for Marriage
20 Nassau Street, Suite 242
Princeton, NJ 08542
[email protected]
Contributions or gifts to the National Organization for Marriage, a 501(c)(4) organization with QNC status, are not tax-deductible. The National Organization for Marriage does not accept contributions from business corporations, labor unions, foreign nationals, or federal contractors; however, it may accept contributions from federally registered political action committees. Donations may be used for political purposes such as supporting or opposing candidates. No funds will be earmarked or reserved for any political purpose.
One Comment