NOM BLOG

New PPP Poll: Romney Headed for Easy New Hampshire Win

PPP Polling:

Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire.  PPP's final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.

...If you think momentum is a major factor Huntsman probably bests Paul for 2nd and Santorum probably beats out Gingrich for 4th.

Full results here.

 

Gronstal Continues to Block Marriage Vote in Iowa

The Cedar Valley's Courier:

The leader of the Democrat-controlled Iowa Senate vows to continue to block any attempts to ban same-sex marriage.

Sen. Mike Gronstal said this week that he will not allow a vote on an amendment to the constitution that would ban gay marriage.

"I'm not going to be a part of putting discrimination into the state's constitution," he said.

Gronstal has stuck to his guns even as opponents of same sex marriage have singled him out as a target of attacks. Bob Vander Plaats, leader of The Family Leader, has previously said Gronstal will be a prime target for defeat in the 2012 election.

Vander Plaats was in Cedar Falls earlier this week to observe the caucuses and speak out for Rick Santorum.

He was joined by Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage, which helped fund an effort in 2010 that resulted in removal of three Iowa Supreme Court justices who made gay marriage possible in the state.

Brown expects Iowans will pressure Gronstal to allow a vote.

"We've won in every state where we've had a direct referendum," he said. "All we're asking for is the people of Iowa have the same chance the public in 31 other states have had to have direct vote on this."

Latest New Hampshire Poll: Romney Slips; Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum in the Hunt

The New Hampshire State Column:

The latest 7 News/Suffolk University poll of likely voters in the New Hampshire Primary is great news for the Paul campaign and troublesome news for the Romney campaign. Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, surged 3 points to 20 percent of the votes in a 7 News/Suffolk University poll released Sunday. On the other hand, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney dipped 4 points to 35 percent of the votes in the same poll.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is the only other candidate to earn double-digit support in the latest New Hampshire poll. Mr. Huntsman garnered 11 percent of the votes to finish in the top-tier, but former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who has been riding a recent wave of momentum following his 2nd place victory in the Iowa Caucuses, pulled in 8 percent of the votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who once was a serious contender for second place in New Hampshire, earned just 9 percent of the votes.

Suffolk University’s Saturday poll of likely New Hampshire Primary voters found Mr. Romney in first place with 39 percent and Mr. Paul in second place with 17 percent of the votes. Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Santorum were tied with 9 percent of the votes each.

New Jersey Legislature to Introduce SSM Bill Again, With Announcement Tomorrow

The New Jersey Star-Ledger:

In a dramatic move, Democratic leaders plan to announce at a news conference tomorrow that a bill legalizing gay marriage will be the first measure introduced in the new session of the Senate and the Assembly, sources with knowledge of their intentions said last night.

A unified Democratic leadership represents the best chance supporters will have to see a bill legalizing gay marriage move through both houses, according to three sources who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the plan.

... But there’s a major obstacle: Gov. Chris Christie.

A spokesman for the governor, Michael Drewniak, declined to comment on the move. But Christie has emphasized in the past that he opposes gay marriage and supports civil unions, civil unions, which New Jersey currently allows.

Gary Bauer Endorses Rick Santorum

Alexander Burns at Politico:

Social conservative leader Gary Bauer will endorse Rick Santorum for president this weekend, a Santorum campaign source confirmed.

The endorsement, which was first reported by the Washington Post, will come during Santorum's planned visit to South Carolina.

The support from Bauer, a former Family Research Council leader who ran for president in 2000, may help Santorum position himself as the consensus Christian conservative candidate in the GOP field.

Bauer is one of a number of social conservative solons who have conferred in recent days in an attempt to coalesce behind a single Republican White House hopeful.

ADF: Media Spins Santorum Debate to Make Marriage Support Appear Politically Unpopular

The Alliance Defense Fund weighs-in on the question if Santorum's vigorous defense of marriage will help or hurt him among GOP primary voters:

Pro marriage voters in Iowa are largely responsible for Santorum’s catapult to front runner status. Marriage amendments have passed in every state where voters have had opportunity to decide. Honest poll questions show most Americans continue to support the traditional definition of marriage. Nevertheless, the media is trying to make it appear politically unpopular to support the traditional definition of marriage. See, e.g.,

CSMonitor.com: Rick Santorum compares gay marriage to polygamy. Will that help him with GOP? : “Rick Santorum, who was speaking to college Republicans in New Hampshire, was loudly booed. While GOP voters have consistently opposed gay marriage, a majority of Americans now disagree . . . ”

ABC News: Rick Santorum in the Hot Seat Again for Gay Marriage Stance

LaTimes.com: “Rick Santorum jeered after comparing gay marriage to polygamy”: “Are we saying everyone should have the right to marry? So anyone can marry anyone else?” Santorum asked, according to a video by NBC News. “So anybody can marry several people?”

Santorum in New Hampshire: "Marriage Provides Something Unique in Society"

Asked about marriage during a press conference on the campaign trail, Rick Santorum responds that marriage is a privilege, not an unalienable right, because "marriage provides something unique in a society":

ADF Video: Same-Sex Couple Challenge Religious Freedom of Hawaiian B&B Owners

Alliance Defense Fund Attorney Dale Schowengerdt discusses a case we've been watching in Hawaii:

New PPP Poll of South Carolina: Romney 30%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 19%

Democrat-leaning polling firm PPP released a new South Carolina poll just before tonight's New Hampshire GOP debate. Some of their findings:

Mitt Romney's taken a modest lead in South Carolina. He's at 30% there to 23% for Newt Gingrich and 19% for Rick Santorum. None of the other candidates hit double digits- Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% round out the field.

... Gingrich may be in second place right now but the candidate who would have the best chance of beating Romney in South Carolina is Santorum. He edges out Romney as the candidate with the best favorability rating at 63/21.

... Finally it's important to note how truly up in the air the South Carolina race is. 45% of voters are either undecided or open to changing their minds in the next two weeks. And when we asked folks who they thought had run the strongest campaign in the state 49% said they weren't sure, speaking to the fact that the campaign there really hasn't started yet. Romney's in the lead for now but a Gingrich or more likely Santorum surge certainly seems within the realm of possibility.

WSJ Blog: Gay Marriage Becomes Issue in NH GOP Primary

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire blog:

As New Hampshire gets ready for its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, the state legislature is expected to vote any day on one of its more controversial issues in years: whether to repeal a gay-marriage law passed in 2009.

The National Organization for Marriage, which has set up an operation in New Hampshire to push for the repeal, is pleased that the vote is coming when all eyes are on the state. “Right now it’s in the national spotlight and that’s very good,” said Brian Brown, president of the organization, which he says has been working in New Hampshire to “to encourage the candidates to stand up for marriage.” That would be marriage between one man and one woman.

... Meanwhile, local pro-repeal activists hope pinning down the presidential candidates on the issue can give clout to their cause, which would make New Hampshire the first state legislature to repeal a law allowing same-sex marriages.

They hit the jackpot with Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who recently told a voter at a Manchester diner: “I support the repeal of the New Hampshire law. I believe marriage is between a man and a woman.”

Five Reasons Why Obama Should Fear the Vest?

Matt Lewis of the Daily Caller writes:

Barack Obama and his team have spent months assuming Mitt Romney will be their opponent. But while Romney is still the favorite to win the GOP nomination, the surging Rick Santorum might be a much tougher opponent to defeat.

This is true for a variety of important reasons — many of which overlap:

...4. Values voters. In the post-Bush era, there has been a backlash against so-called “compassionate conservatism.” While conservatives were correct to repudiate the big-spending days of the 2000′s, traditional conservatives haven’t suddenly become selfish Ayn Randians, either. James Pethokoukis picked up on this recently, comparing Santorum’s Burkean philosophy to Mitt Romney’s more Hayekian economic stance. He writes that Santorum

isn’t satisfied with an economy that’s more efficient and competitive if it doesn’t result in stronger families. As it says on his campaign website: “Rick Santorum believes that to have a strong national economy, we must have strong families.” The family is at the center of Santorum’s economic vision. GDP growth is a means, not an end.

Santorum’s focus on cultural issues — in an era when they have been downplayed by many Republicans — has made him a very appealing candidate to Evangelicals.

Watch the Media Invent A False Narrative on Romney and Santorum

Reuters asks the question: will Santorum's rise draw Romney into the culture wars?

"The sudden rise of Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum, who has emphasized his Christian faith on the campaign trail, is threatening to draw front-runner Mitt Romney into difficult territory - the culture wars."

It begins with the false premise that:

"Romney has talked about job creation on a daily basis, bashed Democratic President Barack Obama relentlessly, and cast himself as an experienced businessman who can fix the economy since launching his second bid for the White House in June. He has steered far away from divisive social issues like abortion and gay marriage."

Yes Romney, like Santorum, has emphasized jobs and the economy. Duh.

But he has never backed away or downgraded his stance on marriage. He's been rather good at debate--more comfortable than most other candidates--at defending his views.

The new prominence of "culture war" issues is coming from the ferocity of the attacks directed at Rick Santorum, fanned by the mainstream media.

And unlike what Reuters suggests this will be a net vote-getter for the GOP candidates. This is why Pres. Obama, according to senior advisers, is staying away from endorsing gay marriage before the election. He knows the issue will cost him votes and gain ones for the GOP.

New Child Trends Brief on Unwed Childbearing

Elizabeth Marquardt writes at FamilyScholars:

Having children outside of marriage–nonmarital childbearing–is increasingly common in the United States. A new Research Brief, Childbearing Outside of Marriage: Estimates and Trends in the United States [PDF], describes how the population of women bearing children outside of marriage has changed, often in ways that challenge public perceptions. Nonmarital childbearing remains a significant public concern as it is linked to negative outcomes for women and their children across a range of measures, as well as with a reliance on public assistance.

Video: Gay Former Aide to Santorum Stands Up For His Boss

Via TownHall, Chris Matthews attempts to bait Robert Traynham into impugning the character of his former boss, Rick Santorum.

Traynham, to his credit, won't stand for it and presents Santorum's views far more fairly than the interviewer. Will Traynham be treated as fairly by those who hate Santorum for his stalwart defense of marriage?

Santorum Engages Pro-SSM NH College Students in Rational Conversation

He's rather charming here. And patient. Why doesn't marriage equality include all marriages, including polygamous marriages, if the only principle at stake here is all people have a right to have their relationships treated equally if those relationships are important to their happiness? The students have no answer, so they try to claim its not a legitimate question: